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Lessons from the Dnipro: Why Estonia Can’t Afford to Live in Illusions

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Lessons from the Dnipro: Why Estonia Can’t Afford to Live in Illusions

In Kyiv I saw the Dnipro. The Dnipro does not ask for permission to flow; it has coursed through the centuries with indifference toward the empires along its banks that once believed themselves unshakable. It possesses the privilege of time. Ukraine did not have the privilege of time — it was thrown into the rapids: swim or drown. Estonia, on the other hand, stands on the riverbank, where the air is deceptively calm, writes Artur Sanglepp, attorney-at-law at RASK law firm.

This calm is not safety, but rather the silence before the plunge. Time can function not as a resource, but as a trap, luring you into believing that there is plenty of it to make decisions. The routines of peacetime — all just fragile reeds when the flood comes. To imagine that in such time one could calmly draw up diagrams, is to mistake the river's stillness for the permanence of the situation. The Dnipro whispers: when the waters rise, you won't be building on the water, but under it. Ukraine confirms: the water is already up to the ankles.

Modular shadow-machines


A new era has dawned in risk management in almost all fields — insurance and reinsurance, diversification and backup systems, advanced compliance checks. Ukraine's experience shows that production is increasingly decentralized, concealed and of course modular, so that disruptions in the supply chain don't become production stoppers. It seems that the future of defense favors systems are adaptable and capable of regenerating themselves faster than they can be destroyed.

Shedding the skin


Could a liberalizing reform be seen as a shedding of the state's skin, like a snake sheds its old layer? Just so that from within something faster, more agile and aggressive can emerge? Ukraine did just that, because it had no other choice. Improvisation became the norm, speed a doctrine and learning from failure a part of daily life.

If the Dnipro teaches anything, it is that permanence is an illusion. What lasts, can adapt. Innovation driven by the private sector in the defense field might be best viewed as a civilian-born weapon — one with a special ability to adjust to changing conditions.

The Experimental space


Where in Estonia is the place where the pragmatism of soldiers and the bold ideas of engineers meet in a unified, feedback-driven development process? So far, there is no such place. In Ukraine, prototypes are born on Monday, tested by Friday, and by Sunday, they are either burning in the sky or causing damage to the enemy.

Estonia could benefit from that same rhythm — feedback that is immediate and effective. The calls to establish a defense industry innovation hub have already been voiced at several industry events. Remembering the midnight "song" of strike drones, I'll repeat that call here as well.

Artur took part in the Darkstar Bootcamp development event in Ukraine in August, where he advised participating companies on legal matters.